SaintéLyon Finish Time Predictor
SaintéLyon stats pre-loaded (80km, 1,963m D+). Enter a known race result to get an elevation-adjusted SaintéLyon finish time estimate.
Full SaintéLyon course data: aid stations, cutoffs, course profile
1. Your race
2. How should we estimate you?
Same as gain. Edit if different.
Hours, or h:mm
3. Your predicted finish
99.6 km-effort (ITRA, gain only)111.1 km-effort
Add a past race or your index to get a finish time.
SaintéLyon finish times by UTMB Index
Predicted finish on the SaintéLyon course (80.0 km, 1,963 m D+) for each UTMB Index, with the margin to the 16h30 cutoff.
| UTMB Index | Predicted finish | Average pace | Margin to cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 850 | 5h52 | 4:24 /km | +10h38 |
| 800 | 6h25 | 4:49 /km | +10h05 |
| 750 | 7h01 | 5:16 /km | +9h29 |
| 700competitive | 7h40 | 5:45 /km | +8h50 |
| 650 | 8h23 | 6:17 /km | +8h07 |
| 600 | 9h10 | 6:52 /km | +7h20 |
| 550 | 10h01 | 7:31 /km | +6h29 |
| 500mid-pack | 10h57 | 8:13 /km | +5h33 |
| 450 | 11h58 | 8:59 /km | +4h32 |
| 400back of the pack | 13h05 | 9:49 /km | +3h25 |
| 350 | 14h18 | 10:43 /km | +2h12 |
| 300 | 15h38 | 11:43 /km | +0h52 |
The 16h30 cutoff sits at about Index 270. The typical winning time, 5h36, sits at about Index 877. At the 2025 edition, the median of the 6,152 finishers took 10h59, about Index 498. A model estimate, not an official ITRA or UTMB figure.
From a result you already have
What the predictor gives on SaintéLyon for a few common reference results.
| Road marathon | 3h00 → 9h49 | 3h30 → 11h27 | 4h00 → 13h05 | 4h30 → 14h43 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 km trail, 2,000 m D+ | 5h30 → 8h05 | 6h30 → 9h33 | 7h30 → 11h00 | 8h30 → 12h28 |
Road marathons use the tool's rougher power-law fallback.
For arrival times at each checkpoint, use the SaintéLyon aid station planner.
SaintéLyon course in numbers
- Climbing per km
- 25 m
- ITRA km-effort
- 100 (50K)
- Highest point
- 885 m
- Biggest climb
- +184 m over 2.0 km at 9.3%
- Steepest climb
- +103 m over 0.9 km at 11.0%
- Longest descent
- -331 m over 9.2 km at 3.4% (through Soucieu-en-Jarrest)
- Track climbing above 3%
- 27%
- Winning time / cutoff
- 5h36 / 16h30 (2.9x the winner's time)
Section-by-section climbs, descents and grades are on the SaintéLyon course page.
Predict your SaintéLyon finish time from a reference race result, adjusted for 80 km and around 1,963 m of climbing. Half the 2025 field finished inside 10:58:47; the overall limit is 16.5 hours.
What does the SaintéLyon predictor tell you?
The predictor uses the Riegel performance prediction model, adjusted for trail elevation using TrailMath's km-effort formula. Enter a race you have completed and the tool translates it to a SaintéLyon equivalent, accounting for 80 km, around 1,963 m of gain, 2,290 m of loss and ultra fatigue scaling.
Check it against the real distribution. The 2025 edition had 6,152 finishers from 6,912 starters. Sylvain Cachard won in 5:36:33, the median finisher took 10:58:47, and the last runner home took 16:57:19. If your estimate lands outside 5h30 to 17h, something in the reference result is wrong.
Add time for the night, not for the climb. This is a modest 1,963 m of climbing over 80 km, so the model's elevation adjustment is small - but the whole race is run between 23:30 and the following afternoon, in November, often in mud. Runners routinely lose more time to footing and cold than to the profile.
Reference race selection. A 40-60 km trail race or a hilly marathon gives the best estimate. A flat road marathon underpredicts, because nothing in it resembles four hours of night descent on wet single track.
Once you have a predicted finish time, use the SaintéLyon Aid Station Planner to turn it into checkpoint splits against the 2026 barriers.
How the prediction works
Your result becomes a UTMB Index, mapped onto SaintéLyon by the calibrated model behind the ITRA / UTMB Index Estimator. Full methodology.
Build a training plan targeted at your SaintéLyon goal time
TrailMath uses these models to build periodized plans adjusted to your goals and terrain.
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