Race Time Predictor
How fast will you run LyonSaintéLyon?
LyonSaintéLyon stats pre-loaded (160km, 5,000m D+). Enter a known race result for an elevation-adjusted estimate of the 160km double.
160km5,000m D+Winner: ~21h36Cutoff: 31h
Full LyonSaintéLyon course data: aid stations, cutoffs, course profile
- ✓Your race (done)
- 2About you
- 3Your finish
1Your race
- The course
160 km, but it costs 235 km-effort. The 5,000 m of descent is where legs go.
2How should we estimate you?
Start with
Pick whichever you have. After your first estimate we ask for the other - two inputs give a firmer read.
Same as gain. Edit if different.
Hours, or h:mm
- TrailMath
Got a UTMB index? Hand it over, it's the straightest read I get. No index? A long, hilly past race works too.
3 · Your predicted finish
210 km-effort (ITRA, gain only)235 km-effort
Add a past race or your index to get a finish time.
LyonSaintéLyon finish times by UTMB Index
Predicted finish on the LyonSaintéLyon course (160.0 km, 5,000 m D+) for each UTMB Index, with the margin to the 31h00 cutoff.
| UTMB Index | Predicted finish | Average pace | Margin to cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 850 | 14h58 | 5:37 /km9:02 /mi | +16h02 |
| 800 | 16h22 | 6:08 /km9:52 /mi | +14h38 |
| 750 | 17h53 | 6:42 /km10:48 /mi | +13h07 |
| 700competitive | 19h33 | 7:20 /km11:48 /mi | +11h27 |
| 650 | 21h22 | 8:01 /km12:54 /mi | +9h38 |
| 600 | 23h22 | 8:46 /km14:06 /mi | +7h38 |
| 550 | 25h32 | 9:35 /km15:25 /mi | +5h28 |
| 500mid-pack | 27h55 | 10:28 /km16:51 /mi | +3h05 |
| 450 | 30h31 | 11:26 /km18:25 /mi | +0h29 |
| 400back of the pack | 33h21 | 12:30 /km20:08 /mi | 2h21 past the cutoff |
| 350 | 36h27 | 13:40 /km22:00 /mi | 5h27 past the cutoff |
| 300 | 39h51 | 14:57 /km24:03 /mi | 8h51 past the cutoff |
The 31h00 cutoff sits at about Index 441. The typical winning time, 21h36, sits at about Index 644. A model estimate, not an official ITRA or UTMB figure.
From a result you already have
What the predictor gives on LyonSaintéLyon for a few common reference results.
| Road marathon | 3h00 → 24h34 | 3h30 → 28h40 | 4h00 → 32h46 | 4h30 → 36h51 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 km trail, 2,000 m D+ | 5h30 → 20h35 | 6h30 → 24h20 | 7h30 → 28h04 | 8h30 → 31h47 |
Road marathons use the tool's rougher power-law fallback.
To prepare each checkpoint, use the LyonSaintéLyon aid station planner.
LyonSaintéLyon course in numbers
- Climbing per kmClimbing per mile
- 31 m165 ft
- ITRA km-effort
- 210 (100M)
- Highest point
- 925 m3,035 ft
- Biggest climb
- +397 m over 11.6 km at 2.6% (through Soucieu-en-Jarrest)+1,302 ft over 7.2 mi at 2.6% (through Soucieu-en-Jarrest)
- Steepest climb
- +375 m over 4.3 km at 8.3%+1,230 ft over 2.7 mi at 8.3%
- Longest descent
- -402 m over 11.5 km at 2.6% (through Soucieu-en-Jarrest)-1,319 ft over 7.1 mi at 2.6% (through Soucieu-en-Jarrest)
- Track climbing above 3%
- 32%
- Winning time / cutoff
- 21h36 / 31h00 (1.4x the winner's time)
Section-by-section climbs, descents and grades are on the LyonSaintéLyon course page.
Predict your LyonSaintéLyon finish time from a reference race result, adjusted for 160 km and 5,000 m of climbing. The limit is 31 hours from the 09:00 Saturday start, with the outbound leg capped at 13 hours.
What does the LyonSaintéLyon predictor tell you?
The predictor uses the Riegel model with TrailMath's km-effort elevation adjustment, applied to the full 160 km and 5,000 m of climbing. The estimate it gives is ELAPSED time from Lyon back to Lyon, including the rest at Saint-Étienne - which is the number the 31-hour limit is measured against.
The organizer's published times are not finish times. Only the return leg is ranked, so the 2025 winning chrono of 7:05:05 covers 78 km rather than 156. Elwan Mehl's actual elapsed time was about 21 hours 36 minutes. Comparing your estimate to the published ranking will make you look four hours faster than you are.
Budget the stop. The model predicts moving time on the course. Add your planned rest at Saint-Étienne - most finishers take 45 minutes to two hours - and check the total against the 22:30 outbound barrier and the 00:40 departure barrier.
Attrition is the honest guide. 420 of 566 starters finished in 2025, a 74% rate, against 89% for the same terrain run once on the 80 km. The difference is the night half, run on legs that already have a full day in them.
Once you have a predicted finish time, use the LyonSaintéLyon Aid Station Planner to split it across both legs.
How the prediction works
Your result becomes a UTMB Index, mapped onto LyonSaintéLyon by the calibrated model behind the ITRA / UTMB Index Estimator. Full methodology.
Build a training plan targeted at your LyonSaintéLyon goal time
TrailMath uses these models to build periodized plans adjusted to your goals and terrain.
Build my plan