Western States 100 Finish Time Predictor
Western States course stats pre-loaded (161km, 5,600m D+, 7,000m D-). Enter a known race result to estimate your finish time. Heat is not modeled - add buffer for canyon sections.
Full Western States 100 course data: aid stations, cutoffs, course profile
1. Your race
2. How should we estimate you?
Same as gain. Edit if different.
Hours, or h:mm
3. Your predicted finish
217.0 km-effort (ITRA, gain only)252.0 km-effort
Add a past race or your index to get a finish time.
Western States 100 finish times by UTMB Index
Predicted finish on the Western States 100 course (161.0 km, 5,600 m D+) for each UTMB Index, with the margin to the 30h00 cutoff.
| UTMB Index | Predicted finish | Average pace | Margin to cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 850 | 15h45 | 5:52 /km | +14h15 |
| 800 | 17h13 | 6:25 /km | +12h47 |
| 750 | 18h49 | 7:01 /km | +11h11 |
| 700competitive | 20h34 | 7:40 /km | +9h26 |
| 650 | 22h29 | 8:23 /km | +7h31 |
| 600 | 24h35 | 9:10 /km | +5h25 |
| 550 | 26h52 | 10:01 /km | +3h08 |
| 500mid-pack | 29h22 | 10:57 /km | +0h38 |
| 450 | 32h06 | 11:58 /km | 2h06 past the cutoff |
| 400back of the pack | 35h06 | 13:05 /km | 5h06 past the cutoff |
| 350 | 38h22 | 14:18 /km | 8h22 past the cutoff |
| 300 | 41h56 | 15:38 /km | 11h56 past the cutoff |
The 30h00 cutoff sits at about Index 488. The typical winning time, 14h30, sits at about Index 897. A model estimate, not an official ITRA or UTMB figure.
From a result you already have
What the predictor gives on Western States 100 for a few common reference results.
| Road marathon | 3h00 → 26h46 | 3h30 → 31h14 | 4h00 → 35h41 | 4h30 → 40h09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 km trail, 2,000 m D+ | 5h30 → 21h40 | 6h30 → 25h37 | 7h30 → 29h32 | 8h30 → 33h27 |
Road marathons use the tool's rougher power-law fallback.
For arrival times at each checkpoint, use the Western States 100 aid station planner.
Western States 100 course in numbers
- Climbing per km
- 35 m
- ITRA km-effort
- 217 (100M)
- Highest point
- 2,667 m
- Biggest climb
- +751 m over 5.6 km at 13.3% (from Start - Olympic Valley)
- Steepest climb
- +532 m over 3.5 km at 14.3% (up to Devil's Thumb)
- Longest descent
- -1,405 m over 24.0 km at 5.4% (through Robinson Flat)
- Track climbing above 3%
- 30%
- Winning time / cutoff
- 14h30 / 30h00 (2.1x the winner's time)
Section-by-section climbs, descents and grades are on the Western States 100 course page.
Predict your Western States finish time from a reference race result, adjusted for 161 km with 5,600 m of gain and 7,000 m of descent. The 30-hour cutoff and canyon heat make a conservative first half essential.
Predicting Western States finish time
Western States is unusual among major 100-milers: it has more descent than gain (7,000m D- vs 5,600m D+), a predominantly runnable profile after the opening climb, and extreme heat in the middle canyon sections. The predictor accounts for the elevation profile but cannot model heat - which is frequently the decisive factor on race day.
Heat adjustment. Canyon temperatures regularly reach 38-42°C in June. For runners racing in those conditions, add 10-15% to the predictor's conservative estimate for a realistic finish time. Runners who have trained in heat and are physiologically acclimatised can stay closer to the model output.
Best reference races for Western States prediction. Other point-to-point or loop 100-milers with significant descent (Angeles Crest 100, Cascade Crest 100) give the most accurate transfers. Mountain ultras with heavy climb-to-descent asymmetry will underpredict your WS time because WS has fast runnable sections that reward road-speed capacity. The predictor normalises for effort, but individual strengths on descending vs climbing introduce additional variance.
Silver Buckle and sub-24 goals. The Silver Buckle is awarded for sub-24 hour finishes. This corresponds to roughly a 50-mile trail race in 9:30-10:30 or a 100km mountain ultra in 12-14 hours. Sub-24 at Western States is achievable for strong trail runners with good heat tolerance and smart pacing through the canyons.
Once you have a predicted finish time, use the Western States Aid Station Planner to build checkpoint splits and coordinate your crew.
How the prediction works
Your result becomes a UTMB Index, mapped onto Western States 100 by the calibrated model behind the ITRA / UTMB Index Estimator. Full methodology.
Build a training plan targeted at your Western States goal time
TrailMath uses these models to build periodized plans adjusted to your goals and terrain.
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