Race Time Predictor

How fast will you run EXP 32K?

EXP 32K race stats pre-loaded (32 km, 2,100 m D+). Enter a known race result to get an elevation-adjusted finish time estimate.

32km2,100m D+Winner: ~2h59Cutoff: 7h15

Full Val d'Aran by UTMB - EXP 32K course data: aid stations, cutoffs, course profile

32 kmdistance2,100 mD+2,093 mD-63km-effort

GentleSteadySteepVery steep

Your race (done)
About you
Your finish

1Your race

EXP 32KOfficial course loaded · 32 km · 2,100 m D+Different race?

Have the GPX? Measure the exact course in the GPX Explorer

The course
32 km, but it costs 63 km-effort. The 2,100 m of climbing sets the pace.

2How should we estimate you?

Start with

Pick whichever you have. After your first estimate we ask for the other - two inputs give a firmer read.

Distance (km)

Elevation gain (m)

Elevation loss (m)

Same as gain. Edit if different.

Finish time

Hours, or h:mm

From my Strava historyYour last 90 days of real training. Opens the TrailMath app.Read-only access to your activities. Nothing is posted to Strava, and no training plan is created until you ask for one.

TrailMath
Got a UTMB index? Hand it over, it's the straightest read I get. No index? A long, hilly past race works too.

3 · Your predicted finish

53 km-effort (ITRA, gain only)63 km-effort

Add a past race or your index to get a finish time.

EXP 32K finish times by UTMB Index

Predicted finish on the EXP 32K course (32.0 km, 2,100 m D+) for each UTMB Index, with the margin to the 7h15 cutoff.

EXP 32K: predicted finish time by UTMB Index
UTMB Index	Predicted finish	Average pace	Margin to cutoff
850	3h01	5:39 /km9:06 /mi	+4h14
800	3h18	6:11 /km9:57 /mi	+3h57
750	3h36	6:45 /km10:52 /mi	+3h39
700competitive	3h56	7:23 /km11:53 /mi	+3h19
650	4h18	8:04 /km12:59 /mi	+2h57
600	4h42	8:49 /km14:12 /mi	+2h33
550	5h09	9:39 /km15:31 /mi	+2h06
500mid-pack	5h37	10:32 /km16:58 /mi	+1h38
450	6h09	11:31 /km18:32 /mi	+1h06
400back of the pack	6h43	12:36 /km20:16 /mi	+0h32
350	7h21	13:46 /km22:09 /mi	0h06 past the cutoff
300	8h02	15:03 /km24:13 /mi	0h47 past the cutoff

The 7h15 cutoff sits at about Index 357. The typical winning time, 2h59, sits at about Index 857. A model estimate, not an official ITRA or UTMB figure.

From a result you already have

What the predictor gives on EXP 32K for a few common reference results.

EXP 32K: predicted finish from reference results
Road marathon	3h00 → 4h57	3h30 → 5h46	4h00 → 6h36	4h30 → 7h25
50 km trail, 2,000 m D+	5h30 → 4h09	6h30 → 4h54	7h30 → 5h39	8h30 → 6h24

Road marathons use the tool's rougher power-law fallback.

EXP 32K course in numbers

Climbing per kmClimbing per mile: 66 m347 ft
ITRA km-effort: 53 (50K)
Highest point: 2,218 m7,277 ft
Biggest climb: +1,115 m over 5.9 km at 18.8% (through Santet Escunhau)+3,658 ft over 3.7 mi at 18.8% (through Santet Escunhau)
Longest descent: -1,247 m over 6.3 km at 19.7% (down to Vielha (Finish))-4,091 ft over 3.9 mi at 19.7% (down to Vielha (Finish))
Track climbing above 3%: 40%
Winning time / cutoff: 2h59 / 7h15 (2.4x the winner's time)

Section-by-section climbs, descents and grades are on the EXP 32K course page.

Predict your EXP 32K finish time from a reference race result, adjusted for the course's 32 km and roughly 2,100 m of elevation gain. The overall cutoff is 7h15.

About Val d'Aran by UTMB - EXP 32K

Val d'Aran by UTMB - EXP 32K covers 32 km with around 2,100 m of elevation gain, starting in Vielha, Spain. The overall cutoff is 7 hours 15 minutes.

Checkpoint data approximate - verify against the current official race guide at valdaran.utmb.world before your race.

How the prediction works

Your result becomes a UTMB Index, mapped onto EXP 32K by the calibrated model behind the ITRA / UTMB Index Estimator. Full methodology.

Build a training plan targeted at your EXP 32K goal time

TrailMath uses these models to build periodized plans adjusted to your goals and terrain.

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