UTMB Finish Time Predictor
UTMB race stats pre-loaded (174km, 10,000m D+). Enter a known race result to get an elevation-adjusted UTMB finish time estimate.
Full UTMB Mont-Blanc course data: aid stations, cutoffs, course profile
1. Your race
2. How should we estimate you?
Same as gain. Edit if different.
Hours, or h:mm
3. Your predicted finish
274.0 km-effort (ITRA, gain only)324.0 km-effort
Add a past race or your index to get a finish time.
UTMB Mont-Blanc finish times by UTMB Index
Predicted finish on the UTMB Mont-Blanc course (174.0 km, 10,000 m D+) for each UTMB Index, with the margin to the 45h45 cutoff.
| UTMB Index | Predicted finish | Average pace | Margin to cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 850 | 22h11 | 7:39 /km | +23h34 |
| 800 | 24h15 | 8:22 /km | +21h30 |
| 750 | 26h30 | 9:08 /km | +19h15 |
| 700competitive | 28h58 | 9:59 /km | +16h47 |
| 650 | 31h40 | 10:55 /km | +14h05 |
| 600 | 34h37 | 11:56 /km | +11h08 |
| 550 | 37h50 | 13:03 /km | +7h55 |
| 500mid-pack | 41h22 | 14:16 /km | +4h23 |
| 450 | 45h13 | 15:35 /km | +0h32 |
| 400back of the pack | 49h25 | 17:02 /km | 3h40 past the cutoff |
| 350 | 54h01 | 18:38 /km | 8h16 past the cutoff |
| 300 | 59h03 | 20:22 /km | 13h18 past the cutoff |
The 45h45 cutoff sits at about Index 443. The typical winning time, 20h00, sits at about Index 908. At the 2026 edition, the median of the 1,676 finishers took 38h10, about Index 545. A model estimate, not an official ITRA or UTMB figure.
From a result you already have
What the predictor gives on UTMB Mont-Blanc for a few common reference results.
| Road marathon | 3h00 → 36h25 | 3h30 → 42h29 | 4h00 → 48h33 | 4h30 → 54h37 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 km trail, 2,000 m D+ | 5h30 → 30h30 | 6h30 → 36h04 | 7h30 → 41h35 | 8h30 → 47h06 |
Road marathons use the tool's rougher power-law fallback.
For arrival times at each checkpoint, use the UTMB Mont-Blanc aid station planner.
UTMB Mont-Blanc course in numbers
- Climbing per km
- 57 m
- ITRA km-effort
- 274 (100M)
- Highest point
- 2,537 m
- Biggest climb
- +1,909 m over 23.4 km at 7.2% (Saint-Gervais to Refuge de la Croix du Bonhomme)
- Steepest climb
- +762 m over 4.2 km at 17.9% (through Grand Col Ferret)
- Longest descent
- -1,270 m over 14.1 km at 8.3% (through La Fouly)
- Track climbing above 3%
- 40%
- Winning time / cutoff
- 20h00 / 45h45 (2.3x the winner's time)
Section-by-section climbs, descents and grades are on the UTMB Mont-Blanc course page.
Predict your UTMB finish time from a reference race result, adjusted for the course's 174 km and roughly 10,000 m of elevation gain. The middle half of the 2026 field finished between 32:21 and 42:30, with a median of 38:10; the overall cutoff is 45h45.
What does the UTMB predictor tell you?
The predictor uses the Riegel performance prediction model, adjusted for trail elevation using TrailMath's km-effort formula. Enter a race you have completed (any distance, any terrain) and the tool translates that performance to a UTMB equivalent, accounting for the 174km distance, 10,000m of gain and loss, and ultra fatigue scaling.
Understanding the output. The tool returns an optimistic and conservative estimate. For UTMB specifically, the conservative figure is more meaningful - UTMB's difficulty is heavily influenced by conditions (weather, heat, night navigation) that the model cannot capture. A runner with a 24-hour optimistic prediction should target 27-28 hours to account for UTMB's specific demands.
Reference race selection. For accurate UTMB prediction, use a reference race that is similar in character: ideally a mountain ultra of at least 50km with significant elevation. A flat road 100km will underpredict your UTMB time because the fatigue profile is different. The most reliable reference races are other UTMB World Series events (OCC, CCC, MCC) or comparable mountain ultras in the Alps.
What the 2026 field actually ran. Of 1,681 finishers: 4 per cent went under 24 hours, 15 per cent finished between 24 and 30 hours, 30 per cent between 30 and 38 hours, and 51 per cent took more than 38 hours. The median was 38:10:30 and the middle half of the field came in between 32:21 and 42:30. A 30-hour finish is not mid-pack at UTMB - it is roughly the top fifth. See the full breakdown by age group.
Once you have a predicted finish time, use the UTMB Aid Station Planner to translate it into checkpoint splits and brief your crew.
How the prediction works
Your result becomes a UTMB Index, mapped onto UTMB Mont-Blanc by the calibrated model behind the ITRA / UTMB Index Estimator. Full methodology.
Build a training plan targeted at your UTMB goal time
TrailMath uses these models to build periodized plans adjusted to your goals and terrain.
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