TDS (Sur les Traces des Ducs de Savoie)

TDS Finish Time Predictor

TDS race stats pre-loaded (148 km, 9,300 m D+). Enter a known race result to get an elevation-adjusted finish time estimate.

148km9,300m D+Winner: ~18h30Cutoff: 44h55

Full TDS (Sur les Traces des Ducs de Savoie) course data: aid stations, cutoffs, course profile

1. Your race

TDS

148 km · 9300 m D+ · 9487 m D-

Different race?

Have the GPX? Measure the exact course in the GPX Explorer

2. How should we estimate you?

From my Strava historyYour last 90 days of real training. Opens the TrailMath app.Read-only access to your activities. Nothing is posted to Strava, and no training plan is created until you ask for one.

Distance (km)

Elevation gain (m)

Elevation loss (m)

Same as gain. Edit if different.

Finish time

Hours, or h:mm

3. Your predicted finish

241.0 km-effort (ITRA, gain only)288.4 km-effort

Add a past race or your index to get a finish time.

TDS finish times by UTMB Index

Predicted finish on the TDS course (148.0 km, 9,300 m D+) for each UTMB Index, with the margin to the 44h55 cutoff.

TDS: predicted finish time by UTMB Index
UTMB Index	Predicted finish	Average pace	Margin to cutoff
850	19h10	7:46 /km	+25h46
800	20h57	8:29 /km	+23h59
750	22h54	9:17 /km	+22h02
700competitive	25h01	10:09 /km	+19h54
650	27h21	11:05 /km	+17h34
600	29h54	12:07 /km	+15h01
550	32h41	13:15 /km	+12h14
500mid-pack	35h44	14:29 /km	+9h12
450	39h03	15:50 /km	+5h52
400back of the pack	42h41	17:18 /km	+2h14
350	46h40	18:55 /km	1h45 past the cutoff
300	51h00	20:41 /km	6h05 past the cutoff

The 44h55 cutoff sits at about Index 371. The typical winning time, 18h30, sits at about Index 870. At the 2026 edition, the median of the 714 finishers took 37h31, about Index 473. A model estimate, not an official ITRA or UTMB figure.

From a result you already have

What the predictor gives on TDS for a few common reference results.

TDS: predicted finish from reference results
Road marathon	3h00 → 31h35	3h30 → 36h51	4h00 → 42h06	4h30 → 47h22
50 km trail, 2,000 m D+	5h30 → 26h21	6h30 → 31h09	7h30 → 35h55	8h30 → 40h41

Road marathons use the tool's rougher power-law fallback.

For arrival times at each checkpoint, use the TDS aid station planner.

TDS course in numbers

Climbing per km: 63 m
ITRA km-effort: 241 (100M)
Highest point: 2,580 m
Biggest climb: +1,556 m over 9.0 km at 17.3% (through Bourg Saint-Maurice)
Steepest climb: +560 m over 2.3 km at 24.8%
Longest descent: -1,394 m over 13.1 km at 10.5% (through Seez)
Track climbing above 3%: 39%
Winning time / cutoff: 18h30 / 44h55 (2.4x the winner's time)

Section-by-section climbs, descents and grades are on the TDS course page.

Predict your TDS finish time from a reference race result, adjusted for the course's 148 km and roughly 9,300 m of elevation gain. The overall cutoff is 44h55.

About TDS (Sur les Traces des Ducs de Savoie)

TDS (Sur les Traces des Ducs de Savoie) covers 148 km with around 9,300 m of elevation gain, starting in Courmayeur, Italy. The overall cutoff is 44 hours 55 minutes.

Crew access is allowed at Bourg Saint-Maurice (51.1 km), Beaufort (92.3 km) and Les Contamines (122.8 km). Drop bags are available at Beaufort.

Checkpoint data approximate - verify against the current official race guide at montblanc.utmb.world before your race.

How the prediction works

Your result becomes a UTMB Index, mapped onto TDS by the calibrated model behind the ITRA / UTMB Index Estimator. Full methodology.

Build a training plan targeted at your TDS goal time

TrailMath uses these models to build periodized plans adjusted to your goals and terrain.

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