CCC Finish Time Predictor
CCC race stats pre-loaded (108km, 6,200m D+). Enter a known race result to get an elevation-adjusted CCC finish time estimate.
Full CCC (Courmayeur-Champex-Chamonix) course data: aid stations, cutoffs, course profile
1. Your race
2. How should we estimate you?
Same as gain. Edit if different.
Hours, or h:mm
3. Your predicted finish
169.8 km-effort (ITRA, gain only)201.7 km-effort
Add a past race or your index to get a finish time.
CCC finish times by UTMB Index
Predicted finish on the CCC course (107.8 km, 6,200 m D+) for each UTMB Index, with the margin to the 28h30 cutoff.
| UTMB Index | Predicted finish | Average pace | Margin to cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 850 | 12h21 | 6:52 /km | +16h09 |
| 800 | 13h30 | 7:31 /km | +15h00 |
| 750 | 14h45 | 8:13 /km | +13h45 |
| 700competitive | 16h07 | 8:58 /km | +12h23 |
| 650 | 17h38 | 9:49 /km | +10h52 |
| 600 | 19h16 | 10:43 /km | +9h14 |
| 550 | 21h04 | 11:43 /km | +7h26 |
| 500mid-pack | 23h01 | 12:49 /km | +5h29 |
| 450 | 25h10 | 14:00 /km | +3h20 |
| 400back of the pack | 27h30 | 15:19 /km | +1h00 |
| 350 | 30h04 | 16:44 /km | 1h34 past the cutoff |
| 300 | 32h52 | 18:18 /km | 4h22 past the cutoff |
The 28h30 cutoff sits at about Index 380. The typical winning time, 10h00, sits at about Index 968. At the 2026 edition, the median of the 1,512 finishers took 22h11, about Index 521. A model estimate, not an official ITRA or UTMB figure.
From a result you already have
What the predictor gives on CCC for a few common reference results.
| Road marathon | 3h00 → 20h23 | 3h30 → 23h47 | 4h00 → 27h11 | 4h30 → 30h34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 km trail, 2,000 m D+ | 5h30 → 16h59 | 6h30 → 20h04 | 7h30 → 23h09 | 8h30 → 26h13 |
Road marathons use the tool's rougher power-law fallback.
For arrival times at each checkpoint, use the CCC aid station planner.
CCC course in numbers
- Climbing per km
- 58 m
- ITRA km-effort
- 170 (100K)
- Highest point
- 2,584 m
- Biggest climb
- +1,428 m over 8.8 km at 15.2% (Start - Courmayeur to Tete de la Tronche)
- Steepest climb
- +768 m over 4.2 km at 18.0% (Arnouvaz to Grand Col Ferret)
- Longest descent
- -1,038 m over 14.1 km at 6.7% (through La Fouly)
- Track climbing above 3%
- 38%
- Winning time / cutoff
- 10h00 / 28h30 (2.9x the winner's time)
Section-by-section climbs, descents and grades are on the CCC course page.
Predict your CCC finish time from a reference race result, adjusted for the course's 108 km and roughly 6,200 m of elevation gain. Mid-pack finishers take 18-24 hours; the overall cutoff is 28h30.
What does the CCC predictor tell you?
The predictor uses the Riegel performance prediction model, adjusted for trail elevation using TrailMath's km-effort formula. Enter a race you have completed (any distance, any terrain) and the tool translates that performance to a CCC equivalent, accounting for the 108km distance, around 6,200m of gain and loss, and ultra fatigue scaling.
The opening climb shapes the whole race. CCC front-loads its difficulty: roughly 1,300m of gain in the first 10km up to the Tete de la Tronche (2,584m). Runners who bank time on this climb pay for it through the Swiss Val Ferret. The predictor gives you a whole-race estimate; pace the opening climb as if the race starts at Refuge Bertone.
Reference race selection. For an accurate CCC prediction, use a mountain race of at least 40km with sustained climbs - OCC, a 50-60km alpine race, or a hilly 80km. Flat road references underpredict CCC times because the fatigue profile of 6,200m of climbing is different.
Typical CCC finish times by category: Elite (sub-12h), strong amateur (12-16h), mid-pack (16-22h), completion-focused (22-28h30). The intermediate time barriers from Refuge Bertone onwards eliminate roughly the slowest tenth of the field before Chamonix.
Once you have a predicted finish time, use the CCC Aid Station Planner to translate it into checkpoint splits and brief your crew.
How the prediction works
Your result becomes a UTMB Index, mapped onto CCC by the calibrated model behind the ITRA / UTMB Index Estimator. Full methodology.
Build a training plan targeted at your CCC goal time
TrailMath uses these models to build periodized plans adjusted to your goals and terrain.
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