Skip to content
TrailMath
Build my plan Dashboard Build my plan Dashboard

Race Time Predictor

How fast will you run VDA 163K?

VDA 163K race stats pre-loaded (163 km, 10,000 m D+). Enter a known race result to get an elevation-adjusted finish time estimate.

163km10,000m D+Winner: ~21h32Cutoff: 48h

163 kmdistance10,000 mD+10,000 mD-313km-effort
GentleSteadySteepVery steep
  1. Your race (done)
  2. About you
  3. Your finish

1Your race

VDA 163KOfficial course loaded · 163 km · 10,000 m D+Different race?

Have the GPX? Measure the exact course in the GPX Explorer

  • The course

    163 km, but it costs 313 km-effort. The 10,000 m of descent is where legs go.

2How should we estimate you?

Start with

Pick whichever you have. After your first estimate we ask for the other - two inputs give a firmer read.

Same as gain. Edit if different.

Hours, or h:mm

From my Strava history (opens in a new tab)Your last 90 days of real training. Opens the TrailMath app.Read-only access to your activities. Nothing is posted to Strava, and no training plan is created until you ask for one.Powered by Strava
  • TrailMath

    Got a UTMB index? Hand it over, it's the straightest read I get. No index? A long, hilly past race works too.

3 · Your predicted finish

263 km-effort (ITRA, gain only)313 km-effort

Add a past race or your index to get a finish time.

VDA 163K finish times by UTMB Index

Predicted finish on the VDA 163K course (163.0 km, 10,000 m D+) for each UTMB Index, with the margin to the 48h00 cutoff.

VDA 163K: predicted finish time by UTMB Index
UTMB IndexPredicted finishAverage paceMargin to cutoff
85021h167:50 /km12:36 /mi+26h44
80023h148:33 /km13:46 /mi+24h46
75025h249:21 /km15:03 /mi+22h36
700competitive27h4610:13 /km16:27 /mi+20h14
65030h2111:10 /km17:59 /mi+17h39
60033h1112:13 /km19:39 /mi+14h49
55036h1613:21 /km21:29 /mi+11h44
500mid-pack39h3914:36 /km23:29 /mi+8h21
45043h2015:57 /km25:40 /mi+4h40
400back of the pack47h2217:26 /km28:04 /mi+0h38
35051h4719:04 /km30:41 /mi3h47 past the cutoff
30056h3620:50 /km33:32 /mi8h36 past the cutoff

The 48h00 cutoff sits at about Index 393. The typical winning time, 21h32, sits at about Index 843. At the 2026 edition, the median of the 358 finishers took 39h32, about Index 502. A model estimate, not an official ITRA or UTMB figure.

From a result you already have

What the predictor gives on VDA 163K for a few common reference results.

VDA 163K: predicted finish from reference results
Road marathon3h00 → 34h543h30 → 40h434h00 → 46h324h30 → 52h21
50 km trail, 2,000 m D+5h30 → 29h146h30 → 34h347h30 → 39h528h30 → 45h09

Road marathons use the tool's rougher power-law fallback.

To prepare each checkpoint, use the VDA 163K aid station planner.

VDA 163K course in numbers

Climbing per kmClimbing per mile
61 m324 ft
ITRA km-effort
263 (100M)
Highest point
2,520 m8,268 ft
Biggest climb
+1,520 m over 11.0 km at 12.6% (up to Mines de Liat)+4,987 ft over 6.8 mi at 12.6% (up to Mines de Liat)
Steepest climb
+1,107 m over 5.9 km at 18.8% (through Santet Escunhau)+3,632 ft over 3.7 mi at 18.8% (through Santet Escunhau)
Longest descent
-1,190 m over 14.2 km at 7.2% (through Mont-Romies)-3,904 ft over 8.8 mi at 7.2% (through Mont-Romies)
Track climbing above 3%
39%
Winning time / cutoff
21h32 / 48h00 (2.2x the winner's time)

Section-by-section climbs, descents and grades are on the VDA 163K course page.

Predict your VDA 163K finish time from a reference race result, adjusted for the course's 163 km and roughly 10,000 m of elevation gain. The overall cutoff is 48h.

About Val d'Aran by UTMB - VDA 163K

Val d'Aran by UTMB - VDA 163K covers 163 km with around 10,000 m of elevation gain, starting in Vielha, Spain. The overall cutoff is 48 hours.

Crew access is allowed at Bossòst (49.17 km), Salardú (113.58 km) and Arties (148.81 km). Drop bags are available at Bossòst and Salardú.

Checkpoint data approximate - verify against the current official race guide at valdaran.utmb.world before your race.

How the prediction works

Your result becomes a UTMB Index, mapped onto VDA 163K by the calibrated model behind the ITRA / UTMB Index Estimator. Full methodology.

Build a training plan targeted at your VDA 163K goal time

TrailMath uses these models to build periodized plans adjusted to your goals and terrain.

Build my plan