Race Time Predictor
How fast will you run Chiang Dao 160?
Chiang Dao 160 race stats pre-loaded (173 km, 9,800 m D+). Enter a known race result to get an elevation-adjusted finish time estimate.
173km9,800m D+Winner: ~21h15Cutoff: 48h
Full Chiang Mai Thailand by UTMB - Chiang Dao 160 course data: aid stations, cutoffs, course profile
- ✓Your race (done)
- 2About you
- 3Your finish
1Your race
- The course
173 km, but it costs 321 km-effort. The 9,920 m of descent is where legs go.
2How should we estimate you?
Start with
Pick whichever you have. After your first estimate we ask for the other - two inputs give a firmer read.
Same as gain. Edit if different.
Hours, or h:mm
- TrailMath
Got a UTMB index? Hand it over, it's the straightest read I get. No index? A long, hilly past race works too.
3 · Your predicted finish
271 km-effort (ITRA, gain only)321 km-effort
Add a past race or your index to get a finish time.
Chiang Dao 160 finish times by UTMB Index
Predicted finish on the Chiang Dao 160 course (173.0 km, 9,800 m D+) for each UTMB Index, with the margin to the 48h00 cutoff.
| UTMB Index | Predicted finish | Average pace | Margin to cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 850 | 21h51 | 7:35 /km12:12 /mi | +26h09 |
| 800 | 23h53 | 8:17 /km13:20 /mi | +24h07 |
| 750 | 26h06 | 9:03 /km14:34 /mi | +21h54 |
| 700competitive | 28h32 | 9:54 /km15:56 /mi | +19h28 |
| 650 | 31h11 | 10:49 /km17:24 /mi | +16h49 |
| 600 | 34h05 | 11:49 /km19:02 /mi | +13h55 |
| 550 | 37h16 | 12:55 /km20:48 /mi | +10h44 |
| 500mid-pack | 40h44 | 14:08 /km22:44 /mi | +7h16 |
| 450 | 44h32 | 15:27 /km24:51 /mi | +3h28 |
| 400back of the pack | 48h40 | 16:53 /km27:10 /mi | 0h40 past the cutoff |
| 350 | 53h12 | 18:27 /km29:42 /mi | 5h12 past the cutoff |
| 300 | 58h09 | 20:10 /km32:28 /mi | 10h09 past the cutoff |
The 48h00 cutoff sits at about Index 408. The typical winning time, 21h15, sits at about Index 866. At the 2025 edition, the median of the 367 finishers took 41h58, about Index 483. A model estimate, not an official ITRA or UTMB figure.
From a result you already have
What the predictor gives on Chiang Dao 160 for a few common reference results.
| Road marathon | 3h00 → 35h57 | 3h30 → 41h56 | 4h00 → 47h56 | 4h30 → 53h55 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 km trail, 2,000 m D+ | 5h30 → 30h03 | 6h30 → 35h31 | 7h30 → 40h57 | 8h30 → 46h23 |
Road marathons use the tool's rougher power-law fallback.
Chiang Dao 160 course in numbers
- Climbing per kmClimbing per mile
- 57 m299 ft
- ITRA km-effort
- 271 (100M)
- Highest point
- 1,730 m5,676 ft
- Biggest climb
- +1,288 m over 15.7 km at 5.1% (through A5 Suanta Sobkai Homestay)+4,226 ft over 9.8 mi at 5.1% (through A5 Suanta Sobkai Homestay)
- Steepest climb
- +504 m over 3.6 km at 13.4%+1,654 ft over 2.2 mi at 13.4%
- Longest descent
- -967 m over 10.2 km at 8.7%-3,173 ft over 6.3 mi at 8.7%
- Track climbing above 3%
- 40%
- Winning time / cutoff
- 21h15 / 48h00 (2.3x the winner's time)
Section-by-section climbs, descents and grades are on the Chiang Dao 160 course page.
Predict your Chiang Dao 160 finish time from a reference race result, adjusted for the course's 173 km and roughly 9,800 m of elevation gain. The overall cutoff is 48h.
About Chiang Mai Thailand by UTMB - Chiang Dao 160
Chiang Mai Thailand by UTMB - Chiang Dao 160 covers 173 km with around 9,800 m of elevation gain, starting in Chiang Dao, Thailand. The overall cutoff is 48 hours.
Checkpoint data approximate - verify against the current official race guide at chiangmai.utmb.world before your race.
How the prediction works
Your result becomes a UTMB Index, mapped onto Chiang Dao 160 by the calibrated model behind the ITRA / UTMB Index Estimator. Full methodology.
Build a training plan targeted at your Chiang Dao 160 goal time
TrailMath uses these models to build periodized plans adjusted to your goals and terrain.
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