Race Time Predictor
How fast will you run Elephant 100?
Elephant 100 race stats pre-loaded (100 km, 5,500 m D+). Enter a known race result to get an elevation-adjusted finish time estimate.
100km5,500m D+Winner: ~9h15Cutoff: 28h
Full Chiang Mai Thailand by UTMB - Elephant 100 course data: aid stations, cutoffs, course profile
- ✓Your race (done)
- 2About you
- 3Your finish
1Your race
- The course
100 km, but it costs 183 km-effort. The 5,545 m of descent is where legs go.
2How should we estimate you?
Start with
Pick whichever you have. After your first estimate we ask for the other - two inputs give a firmer read.
Same as gain. Edit if different.
Hours, or h:mm
- TrailMath
Got a UTMB index? Hand it over, it's the straightest read I get. No index? A long, hilly past race works too.
3 · Your predicted finish
155 km-effort (ITRA, gain only)183 km-effort
Add a past race or your index to get a finish time.
Elephant 100 finish times by UTMB Index
Predicted finish on the Elephant 100 course (100.0 km, 5,500 m D+) for each UTMB Index, with the margin to the 28h00 cutoff.
| UTMB Index | Predicted finish | Average pace | Margin to cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 850 | 10h59 | 6:35 /km10:36 /mi | +17h01 |
| 800 | 12h00 | 7:12 /km11:36 /mi | +16h00 |
| 750 | 13h07 | 7:52 /km12:40 /mi | +14h53 |
| 700competitive | 14h21 | 8:36 /km13:51 /mi | +13h39 |
| 650 | 15h41 | 9:24 /km15:08 /mi | +12h19 |
| 600 | 17h08 | 10:17 /km16:33 /mi | +10h52 |
| 550 | 18h44 | 11:14 /km18:05 /mi | +9h16 |
| 500mid-pack | 20h29 | 12:17 /km19:46 /mi | +7h31 |
| 450 | 22h23 | 13:26 /km21:37 /mi | +5h37 |
| 400back of the pack | 24h28 | 14:41 /km23:38 /mi | +3h32 |
| 350 | 26h45 | 16:03 /km25:50 /mi | +1h15 |
| 300 | 29h14 | 17:33 /km28:14 /mi | 1h14 past the cutoff |
The 28h00 cutoff sits at about Index 324. The typical winning time, 9h15, sits at about Index 946. At the 2025 edition, the median of the 974 finishers took 22h03, about Index 458. A model estimate, not an official ITRA or UTMB figure.
From a result you already have
What the predictor gives on Elephant 100 for a few common reference results.
| Road marathon | 3h00 → 18h03 | 3h30 → 21h04 | 4h00 → 24h04 | 4h30 → 27h05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 km trail, 2,000 m D+ | 5h30 → 15h06 | 6h30 → 17h51 | 7h30 → 20h35 | 8h30 → 23h19 |
Road marathons use the tool's rougher power-law fallback.
Elephant 100 course in numbers
- Climbing per kmClimbing per mile
- 55 m290 ft
- ITRA km-effort
- 155 (100K)
- Highest point
- 1,600 m5,249 ft
- Biggest climb
- +804 m over 9.9 km at 6.1% (through A18 Wat Ban Iak)+2,638 ft over 6.2 mi at 6.1% (through A18 Wat Ban Iak)
- Steepest climb
- +503 m over 3.6 km at 13.3%+1,650 ft over 2.2 mi at 13.3%
- Longest descent
- -968 m over 10.1 km at 8.7%-3,176 ft over 6.3 mi at 8.7%
- Track climbing above 3%
- 39%
- Winning time / cutoff
- 9h15 / 28h00 (3x the winner's time)
Section-by-section climbs, descents and grades are on the Elephant 100 course page.
Predict your Elephant 100 finish time from a reference race result, adjusted for the course's 100 km and roughly 5,500 m of elevation gain. The overall cutoff is 28h.
About Chiang Mai Thailand by UTMB - Elephant 100
Chiang Mai Thailand by UTMB - Elephant 100 covers 100 km with around 5,500 m of elevation gain, starting in Mae Taeng, Thailand. The overall cutoff is 28 hours.
Checkpoint data approximate - verify against the current official race guide at chiangmai.utmb.world before your race.
How the prediction works
Your result becomes a UTMB Index, mapped onto Elephant 100 by the calibrated model behind the ITRA / UTMB Index Estimator. Full methodology.
Build a training plan targeted at your Elephant 100 goal time
TrailMath uses these models to build periodized plans adjusted to your goals and terrain.
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