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Race Time Predictor

How fast will you run Black Canyon 100K?

Black Canyon 100K race stats pre-loaded (100.1 km, 1,591 m D+). Enter a known race result to get an elevation-adjusted finish time estimate.

100.1km1,591m D+Winner: ~7h20Cutoff: 20h

Full Black Canyon Ultras - 100K course data: aid stations, cutoffs, course profile

100.1 kmdistance1,591 mD+2,236 mD-127km-effort
GentleSteadySteepVery steep
  1. Your race (done)
  2. About you
  3. Your finish

1Your race

Black Canyon 100KOfficial course loaded · 100.1 km · 1,591 m D+Different race?

Have the GPX? Measure the exact course in the GPX Explorer

  • The course

    100.1 km, but it costs 127 km-effort. The 2,236 m of descent is where legs go.

2How should we estimate you?

Start with

Pick whichever you have. After your first estimate we ask for the other - two inputs give a firmer read.

Same as gain. Edit if different.

Hours, or h:mm

From my Strava history (opens in a new tab)Your last 90 days of real training. Opens the TrailMath app.Read-only access to your activities. Nothing is posted to Strava, and no training plan is created until you ask for one.Powered by Strava
  • TrailMath

    Got a UTMB index? Hand it over, it's the straightest read I get. No index? A long, hilly past race works too.

3 · Your predicted finish

116 km-effort (ITRA, gain only)127 km-effort

Add a past race or your index to get a finish time.

Black Canyon 100K finish times by UTMB Index

Predicted finish on the Black Canyon 100K course (100.1 km, 1,591 m D+) for each UTMB Index, with the margin to the 20h00 cutoff.

Black Canyon 100K: predicted finish time by UTMB Index
UTMB IndexPredicted finishAverage paceMargin to cutoff
8506h504:06 /km6:36 /mi+13h10
8007h294:29 /km7:13 /mi+12h31
7508h104:54 /km7:53 /mi+11h50
700competitive8h565:21 /km8:37 /mi+11h04
6509h465:51 /km9:25 /mi+10h14
60010h406:24 /km10:18 /mi+9h20
55011h407:00 /km11:15 /mi+8h20
500mid-pack12h457:39 /km12:18 /mi+7h15
45013h568:21 /km13:27 /mi+6h04
400back of the pack15h149:08 /km14:42 /mi+4h46
35016h399:59 /km16:04 /mi+3h21
30018h1210:55 /km17:34 /mi+1h48

The 20h00 cutoff sits at about Index 247. The typical winning time, 7h20, sits at about Index 811. At the 2026 edition, the median of the 765 finishers took 14h52, about Index 414. A model estimate, not an official ITRA or UTMB figure.

From a result you already have

What the predictor gives on Black Canyon 100K for a few common reference results.

Black Canyon 100K: predicted finish from reference results
Road marathon3h00 → 11h353h30 → 13h314h00 → 15h274h30 → 17h23
50 km trail, 2,000 m D+5h30 → 9h246h30 → 11h077h30 → 12h498h30 → 14h31

Road marathons use the tool's rougher power-law fallback.

To prepare each checkpoint, use the Black Canyon 100K aid station planner.

Black Canyon 100K course in numbers

Climbing per kmClimbing per mile
16 m84 ft
ITRA km-effort
116 (100K)
Highest point
1,280 m4,199 ft
Biggest climb
+200 m over 6.3 km at 3.1% (through Table Mesa)+656 ft over 3.9 mi at 3.1% (through Table Mesa)
Steepest climb
+66 m over 1.0 km at 6.9%+217 ft over 0.6 mi at 6.9%
Longest descent
-319 m over 9.1 km at 3.4% (down to Hidden Treasure)-1,047 ft over 5.7 mi at 3.4% (down to Hidden Treasure)
Track climbing above 3%
22%
Winning time / cutoff
7h20 / 20h00 (2.7x the winner's time)

Section-by-section climbs, descents and grades are on the Black Canyon 100K course page.

Predict your Black Canyon 100K finish time from a reference race result, adjusted for the course's 100.1 km and roughly 1,591 m of elevation gain. The overall cutoff is 20h.

About Black Canyon Ultras - 100K

Black Canyon Ultras - 100K covers 100.1 km (about 62 miles) with around 1,591 m of elevation gain, starting in Mayer High School, Spring Valley, Arizona, USA. The overall cutoff is 20 hours.

Crew access is allowed at Bumble Bee Ranch (31.2 km), Deep Canyon Ranch (51.3 km) and Table Mesa (82.2 km). Drop bags are available at Bumble Bee Ranch, Deep Canyon Ranch and Table Mesa.

Checkpoint data approximate - verify against the current official race guide at aravaiparunning.com before your race.

How the prediction works

Your result becomes a UTMB Index, mapped onto Black Canyon 100K by the calibrated model behind the ITRA / UTMB Index Estimator. Full methodology.

Related tools

Black Canyon 100K Aid Station Planner Prepare your Black Canyon 100K roadbook Nutrition Calculator Calories, carbs & hydration targets Race Time Predictor Elevation-adjusted finish time

Build a training plan targeted at your Black Canyon 100K goal time

TrailMath uses these models to build periodized plans adjusted to your goals and terrain.

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