Race Time Predictor
How fast will you run Black Canyon 50K?
Black Canyon 50K race stats pre-loaded (51.8 km, 611 m D+). Enter a known race result to get an elevation-adjusted finish time estimate.
51.8km611m D+Winner: ~3h16Cutoff: 11h
Full Black Canyon Ultras - 50K course data: aid stations, cutoffs, course profile
- ✓Your race (done)
- 2About you
- 3Your finish
1Your race
- The course
51.8 km, but it costs 64 km-effort. The 1,221 m of descent is where legs go.
2How should we estimate you?
Start with
Pick whichever you have. After your first estimate we ask for the other - two inputs give a firmer read.
Same as gain. Edit if different.
Hours, or h:mm
- TrailMath
Got a UTMB index? Hand it over, it's the straightest read I get. No index? A long, hilly past race works too.
3 · Your predicted finish
58 km-effort (ITRA, gain only)64 km-effort
Add a past race or your index to get a finish time.
Black Canyon 50K finish times by UTMB Index
Predicted finish on the Black Canyon 50K course (51.8 km, 611 m D+) for each UTMB Index, with the margin to the 11h00 cutoff.
| UTMB Index | Predicted finish | Average pace | Margin to cutoff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 850 | 2h52 | 3:19 /km5:21 /mi | +8h08 |
| 800 | 3h08 | 3:38 /km5:51 /mi | +7h52 |
| 750 | 3h26 | 3:58 /km6:23 /mi | +7h34 |
| 700competitive | 3h45 | 4:20 /km6:59 /mi | +7h15 |
| 650 | 4h06 | 4:45 /km7:38 /mi | +6h54 |
| 600 | 4h29 | 5:11 /km8:21 /mi | +6h31 |
| 550 | 4h54 | 5:40 /km9:07 /mi | +6h06 |
| 500mid-pack | 5h21 | 6:12 /km9:58 /mi | +5h39 |
| 450 | 5h51 | 6:46 /km10:54 /mi | +5h09 |
| 400back of the pack | 6h23 | 7:24 /km11:55 /mi | +4h37 |
| 350 | 6h59 | 8:05 /km13:01 /mi | +4h01 |
| 300 | 7h38 | 8:51 /km14:14 /mi | +3h22 |
The 11h00 cutoff sits at about Index 95. The typical winning time, 3h16, sits at about Index 775. At the 2026 edition, the median of the 850 finishers took 6h42, about Index 374. A model estimate, not an official ITRA or UTMB figure.
From a result you already have
What the predictor gives on Black Canyon 50K for a few common reference results.
| Road marathon | 3h00 → 5h00 | 3h30 → 5h50 | 4h00 → 6h40 | 4h30 → 7h30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 km trail, 2,000 m D+ | 5h30 → 3h57 | 6h30 → 4h40 | 7h30 → 5h23 | 8h30 → 6h05 |
Road marathons use the tool's rougher power-law fallback.
To prepare each checkpoint, use the Black Canyon 50K aid station planner.
Black Canyon 50K course in numbers
- Climbing per kmClimbing per mile
- 12 m62 ft
- ITRA km-effort
- 58 (50K)
- Highest point
- 1,280 m4,199 ft
- Biggest climb
- +99 m over 1.6 km at 6.1% (from Bumble Bee Ranch)+325 ft over 1.0 mi at 6.1% (from Bumble Bee Ranch)
- Steepest climb
- +66 m over 1.0 km at 6.9%+217 ft over 0.6 mi at 6.9%
- Longest descent
- -320 m over 9.1 km at 3.3% (down to Hidden Treasure)-1,050 ft over 5.7 mi at 3.3% (down to Hidden Treasure)
- Track climbing above 3%
- 17%
- Winning time / cutoff
- 3h16 / 11h00 (3.4x the winner's time)
Section-by-section climbs, descents and grades are on the Black Canyon 50K course page.
Predict your Black Canyon 50K finish time from a reference race result, adjusted for the course's 51.8 km and roughly 611 m of elevation gain. The overall cutoff is 11h.
About Black Canyon Ultras - 50K
Black Canyon Ultras - 50K covers 51.8 km (about 32 miles) with around 611 m of elevation gain, starting in Mayer High School, Spring Valley, Arizona, USA. The overall cutoff is 11 hours.
Crew access is allowed at Bumble Bee Ranch (31.2 km).
Checkpoint data approximate - verify against the current official race guide at aravaiparunning.com before your race.
How the prediction works
Your result becomes a UTMB Index, mapped onto Black Canyon 50K by the calibrated model behind the ITRA / UTMB Index Estimator. Full methodology.
Build a training plan targeted at your Black Canyon 50K goal time
TrailMath uses these models to build periodized plans adjusted to your goals and terrain.
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